What is left to measure in the Parliament? Can the Democrats have a majority?

House Republicans are on pace to reach the 218 seats they need to flip the House after midterm elections. As of Friday, CBS News estimates Republicans will win at least 213 seats while Democrats are projected to win at least 206 seats. In several of the outstanding races, Republicans are ahead.

There are currently just under 30 unannounced matches. At least 10 seats are considered “battlegrounds,” and there are a handful of other races that remain tight as of Tuesday. Sixteen of the unclaimed races are in California, a reliably Democratic state that has several competitive congressional districts this cycle.

Democratic strategists working on House races this cycle say it would take a “miracle,” but Democrats have a possible path to retaining the majority. Their path to doing so would require a clean sweep in all 13 remaining uncontested seats designated by CBS News as “likely” Democratic or “weak” Democratic. That includes nine seats in California alone, with several Democrats in tight races.

They will then need to win at least 7 of the 13 seats rated “liberal” or “Lean Republican” by CBS News.

In nine of California’s at-large and competitive races (3rd, 9th, 13th, 22nd, 26th, 27th, 41st, 45th, 47th and 49th California), six have Republicans in first place. Four of them have Republicans leading by more than 6 points, while two have margins of 1 point or less.

But at least two of them, Democratic incumbents Reps. Katie Porter and Mike Levin, are expected to take the lead once the remaining mail-in ballots are counted, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc.

For Republicans, California could help push them to the brink of holding the majority — if their nominees hold onto their lead. If Republicans win all of them, and that’s added to the 211 races that CBS News has officially declared Republican, that would bring Republicans to 217 seats — one short of a majority.

Only a fraction of the votes have been reported for those precincts because of the extended time it takes officials to report final results, and mail-in ballots stamped on Election Day may not be received until next Tuesday.

Mitchell said that for Democrats to have any chance of keeping the House, they would have to win in the 22nd, 27th and 41st, all districts where the Republican incumbent is in charge.

“If the Democrats won all three of those races in California, then you think the chances of the Democrats holding the House go up. But if the Democrats lose one of those three, the odds go way down, they lose two of those three, the door slams shut,” Mitchell said.

Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Main Street Partnership Republican group that works with more moderate House Republicans, said she is confident that Rep. Valadao and Calvert will keep their seats.

In the 11 remaining races designated as “battlegrounds” by CBS News, which include four races in California, Republicans lead in seven of them. They also lead in another close race: Colorado’s 3rd District, where GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert leads by about 1,100 votes.

Democratic incumbents lead in three seats in Nevada and in Maine’s 2nd District and Alaska’s At-Large District, two ranked-choice seats.

“From the math we’ve done — I think it’s a foregone conclusion [that Republicans take the House]Chamberlain said. “But it will be very close. It will only be a few seats. And it shouldn’t have been, I mean, that should have been a landslide, honestly.”

In the primaries, Chamberlain’s team supported Republican candidates such as Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan and Jamie Herrera-Beutler, House Republicans targeted by former President Donald Trump. Chamberlain argued that far-right candidates who won their Republican primary would be more competitive in the general election.

He said the issue of the quality of the nominees, as well as the disconnect between Trump and the rest of the Republican establishment, was one reason control of the House remains so tight.

“I don’t think Trump is going to go away,” Chamberlain said. “We just have to make better decisions with Trump. I think some of the Trump candidates hurt us on Tuesday. And that’s why we have to work together as a party and move forward.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *