The most important midterm elections to watch ahead of Election Day

mLecture day is a week away and the 2022 midterms are entering their final sprint.

Republicans hope that Americans’ frustration with inflation and the economy, as well as rising crime, will overshadow their concerns about the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization reversal of decision Roe v. Wade.

Instead, Democrats hope to make abortion a centerpiece of the election, but they also hope to brand “MAGA Republicans” as threats to democracy and highlight the January 6th uprising.

Here are the most important elections to watch this cycle.

Nevada Senate

Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in the Silver State since 2012. President Joe Biden won the state by about the same margin as Hillary Clinton, but his approval rating remains low in the state at 44 percent, according to by a CBS News/YouGov poll.

ONE New York Times/The Siena College poll shows Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina senator, leading former Attorney General Adam Laxalt by 0.4 percentage points, making it a virtual tie.

At the same time, the polls have historically missed the mark in Nevada. So the best barometer to see who is ahead is early voting, which began last weekend.

The Covid-19 pandemic has devastated the state’s hospitality industry at a time when many Latinos are most disillusioned with the Democratic Party. All of this makes Nevada the most likely Senate seat for a flip.

Former President Donald Trump traveled to Nevada this month to support his preferred candidate. Ms. Cortez Masto for her part criticized Mr. Laxalt for promoting the big lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama, who won the state by wide margins in 2008 and 2012, will travel to Las Vegas this week to welcome Mrs. Cortez Masto.

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Pennsylvania Senate

The race to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey has easily become the ugliest and most intensely personal race of the 2022 midterms. Last week, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman faced Republican nominee and former TV doctor Mehmet Oz in their only debate .

Mr. Fetterman, who suffered a stroke in May before the primary, had to use captions to help with auditory processing, which led to him sometimes struggling to answer questions. But his campaign said it raised $2 million within 24 hours of the debate and ran an ad slamming Dr. Oz for saying “Abortion should be the business of a woman, her doctor and her local political leaders.” An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted the day after the debate showed Dr. Oz in the lead.

But the Times/The Siena College poll — conducted between Oct. 24 and Oct. 26, the day after the debate — showed Mr. Fetterman with a five-point lead. On Saturday, Mr. Trump will travel to Latrobe to campaign for Dr. Oz, while Obama will hit the state in both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

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Senate of Georgia

The Georgia Senate race took center stage this month afterThe Daily Beast reported that Republican candidate Herschel Walker allegedly paid for a woman’s abortion despite his strong opposition to it on the campaign trail. The New York Times later confirmed the story and reported that Mr. Walker had pressured the same woman into having another abortion, which she refused. The independent has reached out to the Walker campaign. During an interview with NBC News, Mr. Walker acknowledged that he wrote the check but denied that it was for an abortion. Last week, another woman came forward and claimed that Mr Walker led her to have another abortion.

None of the bad press has deterred Republicans from supporting Mr Walker as he challenges Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. For his part, Mr Warnock has avoided directly criticizing Mr Walker over the abortion charge, but a poll showed support for Mr Walker has fallen. The two clashed in just one debate this month, where Mr Walker accused Mr Warnock of being a rubber stamp for Mr Biden’s agenda. Meanwhile, Mr Warnock criticized Mr Walker, a former University of Georgia running back, for impersonating the policeman, which led to Mr Walker flashing a badge he received.

Governor of Arizona

Arizona’s Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is facing Republican candidate and former news anchor Carrie Lake. Ms Lake has vigorously parroted Mr Trump’s lies about stealing the 2020 presidential election, while Ms Hobbs has been the target of threats as she oversees the election.

In an interview with CNN this month, Ms Lake did not commit to accepting the election results, repeatedly saying “I will win the election and I will accept this result”.

But many Democrats worry that Ms. Hobbs has lost her chances of unseating the Arizona governor after refusing to hold talks with Ms. Lake. On the same Sunday as Ms. Lake’s CNN interview, anchor Dana Bash asked whether Ms. Hobbs supported any limits on abortion, which Ms. Hobbs avoided. The poll shows the two locked in a tight race. The race could determine whether a Republican like Ms. Lake could defy the will of the people if the state votes for a Democrat and refuses to certify the election results in favor of a Republican.

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Arizona Senate

Arizona’s Senate race is much less dynamic, though still contested. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and Republican challenger Blake Masters clashed last week during a debate. The same CBS News/YouGov poll showed Mr Kelly ahead of Mr Masters 51% to 48%. In recent months, Mr. Masters has sought to defend his earlier hard-line position on abortion, even scrubbing his website.

Mr Kelly hit out at Mr Masters in their debate for also deleting parts of his website about the “big lie”. Mr. Masters, for his part, sought to connect Mr. Kelly with Biden, who, despite winning the state in 2020, is unpopular.

Kelly ran an ad saying he supports closing loopholes on the US-Mexico border, saying he stands on the left when they want to defund the police and I stand on the right when they want a national abortion ban. before adding, “when Joe Biden gets it wrong, I call him out.”

Governor of Florida and Texas

Republican incumbents Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have caused a national uproar by sending migrants and refugees into Democratic areas of the country as a means of criticizing the Biden administration’s policies on the US-Mexico border. But despite criticism from Democrats, both men are in a strong position to seek re-election. A strong performance by Mr. DeSantis, who became a right-wing hero after keeping the state mostly open during the Covid-19 pandemic, could position him well to run for president in a 2024 Republican primary.

While Democrat Beto O’Rook repeatedly criticized Mr. Abbott for his positions on guns and abortion in the debate and on the campaign trail, a Quinnipiac poll showed Mr. Abbott leading Mr. O’Rourke by seven points in the poll and most voters rank the economy. as the biggest issue since the Texas-Mexico border.

Meanwhile, Mr. DeSantis and Democrat Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor turned Democratic congressman, sparred on Monday night. While Mr. DeSantis has a double-digit lead, he declined to answer a question from Mr. Crist asking whether he would serve a full four-year term.

Wisconsin Senate

Wisconsin Democrats have officially called in the big guns to save their chances of flipping the Wisconsin Senate race: Former President Barack Obama will head to Milwaukee to canvass for Senate candidates and run an ad endorsing Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Mr. Barnes took part in two debates this month, with Barnes trying to brand Johnson as an extremist for downplaying the January 6 uprising and trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election, as well as his position on abortion.

After initially leading the race, Republicans have attacked Mr. Barnes by saying he supports defunding the police, and CNN reported that there are indications he has at least supported shifting police funding to other areas. The Republican appears to have a slight advantage, as a CNN poll showed Johnson beating Barnes 50 percent to 49 percent.

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