NFL Thanksgiving Odds, How To Watch, Stream: Expert Picks, Best Bets, Teasers, Survivor Picks & More

How about some football to go with your Thanksgiving dinner? The NFL has a three-pointer on deck for Thursday’s holiday and features plenty of playoff contenders and Super Bowl threats. In fact, the .650 winning percentage between these teams is the second highest after the streak was extended to three games on Thanksgiving. Five of the six teams playing on Thanksgiving also own a winning record, which is tied for a league high.

As we do every week for the entire slate, we’ve collected all the best Thanksgiving picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put it all in one place so you can get picks against the spread from the experts us on CBS Sports as well as additional featured content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine viewing model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more.

All NFL odds through Caesars Sportsbook.

What choices can you confidently make in Week 12? And which Super Bowl contender is falling hard? Visit SportsLine as its incredible model simulates every NFL play 10,000 times and is almost ready $7,000 for $100 players in top NFL picks since its inception.

Year: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Accounts -10
Drift: Accounts -9.5

Selected game | Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills

“This has the makings of a game with a lot of offense. Both teams can score, but the Bills can really score. They’ll put up a big number here as Josh Allen wins his second straight game in Detroit after beating the Browns last week in the same building. The track is fast and the Bills can fly. The Lions won’t keep up.” — Pete Prisco, CBS Sports NFL Senior Analysthas the bills covering the 9.5 point spread and this game goes well over the 54.5 total.

“The Lions have been throwing the last few weeks, but I have a hard time betting against Josh Allen with that line under double digits. Yes, Detroit’s defense has played better in its past three games, but that was against the Packers, Bears and Giants . Buffalo’s offense is a completely different animal. Allen has historically played well on Thanksgiving as the Bills are 2-0 SU in both games and the QB has posted a 100+ passer rating in each contest. Although I believe the Buffalo’s offense can get into the 30s indoors at Ford Field, I don’t see the Lions doing that in this environment. Specifically, I have my doubts because of the protection in front of Jared Goff. Detroit is rated as the 24th pass-blocking team in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, Buffalo is the third-best pass-blocking team in the league by the same grading system.” — Tyler Sullivan of CBS Sports on why he takes the -9.5 Bills as one of his best bets for Week 12.

“Allen has only actually surpassed that mark once in the last four games, but I think he hits the Over here against a bad defense. The star quarterback is averaging 293 passing yards per game this season.” — CBS Sports NFL betting guru Jordan Dajani on why Josh Allen wants to surpass his 281.5 yards at -127.

“On paper, this looks like a game the Lions have zero chance of winning, but if I’ve learned one thing in my life about picking NFL games, it’s that teams always seem to win when you think they have zero chance of winning . , especially when they’re led by a man whose most famous line involves biting knees. I have no idea what Dan Campbell eats at his house on Thanksgiving, but there’s a 50% chance it’s kneecaps.

“The big problem in this game for the Lions is that they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this year and they’re going to play a Bills offense that has been one of the best. The Lions have given up the most yards per game and the most points per game and that’s certainly not a good combination when the team you’re playing for ranks second in both points and yards per game.

“If this game had been played four weeks ago, I probably would have picked the Bills by 30, but the Lions are suddenly one of the hottest teams in football. If you combine that with the fact that the Bills have been a bit of an offensive rut, that’s the recipe for a game that could go down to the wire. I told you we’d be talking about recipes.” — CBS Sports NFL writer and Pick Six Podcast co-host John Breech on why he picks the Bills to narrowly defeat the Lions, 30-27.

Year: Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try free)
Open: Cowboys -7
Drift: Cowboys -9

Selected game | Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

“This has the makings of a Cowboys battle, much the same as Dallas’ 40-3 win over Minnesota just a few days ago. New York showed some cracks in its foundation in the loss to Detroit and lost many key contributors, including top cornerback Adoree’ Jackson. That would allow the Cowboys’ offense to keep humming along, but it’s their defense that could really shut down the game. The Giants allow the second-highest pressure percentage (45%) in the NFL this season, while the Cowboys put the most pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the league. In Week 3, Dallas pressured Daniel Jones 27 times in the win, the third most of any game this season. With the Giants be that strong and Dallas playing at a championship level, they’ll win it by double digits.” — CBS Sports NFL Writer Tyler Sullivan on why it takes Dallas to cover New York as one of the week’s five locks.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, enters Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season on a 155-109 streak of top NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season. Now, the model looks to a simulation for on Thanksgiving with a six-footer that will pay nearly 50-1. One of those strands is the 45-point total in the Cowboys-Giants game. As for the rest, you’ll have to go to SportsLine.

“When these two teams met again in Week 3, the Cowboys won 23-16 and that was with Cooper Rush. In that game, the Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones five times and picked him off once and I think we’ll see more The Cowboys have won 10 of the last 11 games in this series and I don’t see that dominance ending this week.

“This is the first time these two teams have played on Thanksgiving since 1992. Thirty years ago, the Cowboys destroyed the Giants 30-3 and then won the Super Bowl two months later. I’m not saying this will happen this year, but I’m not saying that.” — John Breech of CBS Sports on why he likes the Cowboys to beat the Giants, 31-17.

“The Giants are coming off a horrible performance at home against the Lions, which means they may have been looking ahead to this one. The Cowboys straightened things out in their win over the Vikings. The defense dominated and will dominate here as the Giants are very limited to attack.” — Pete Prisco, CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst says the Cowboys’ defense will lead them to victory again.

Year: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fuboTV (try free)
Open: Vikings -3.5
Drift: Vikings -3

Selected game | Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated NFL Thanksgiving Day games 10,000 times and looks at dozens of player scenarios from the Caesars Sportsbook. We can tell you that the model says that Vikings WR Jefferson is over 88.5 receiving yards (-117), with the model projecting him to finish with an average of 99. However, the model also says that another star flies above his entire yard and offers a co-paying support. To see what they are, check out SportsLine.

“Now, this is the most interesting Thanksgiving game to me. The last time the Patriots played on Thanksgiving, they beat the New York Jets 49-19 in the ‘Butt Fumble’ game. Speaking of a Jets win , that’s what the Patriots did last week on an 84-yard punt return with just five seconds left in the fourth quarter. They looked like the better team all afternoon, but it took an incredibly long time for them to prove it. I thought Mac Jones was ok. He completed 23 of 27 passes for 246 yards, which is Jones’ highest completion percentage this season (85.2%). Wind played a role in this game, but the defense was great. They sacked Zach Wilson four times and allowed just 103 yards.In my rankings of the AFC wild-card teams, I have the Patriots at No. 2. They could go on a second-half run — just like they did last year.

“As for the Vikings, yes, that 40-3 loss to the Cowboys will take some time to get over. However, they can take a page out of the Cowboys’ book and make everyone forget about it with a dominating win on Thanksgiving. Even with Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson, I can’t help but be impressed by New England’s defense. This unit has allowed just 7.7 points per game over the last three contests and is allowing a 19 percent conversion rate on third downs over the same period. The Patriots own the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season, while the Vikings are allowing the fifth-highest rate. I will say that of the three Thanksgiving contests, I have the least confidence in this one when it comes to picking a side. I’ll take the Patriots to pull off a surprise here, and I like the Over.” — Jordan Dajani of CBS Sports upset smells in Minnesota as Patriots SU beat Vikings in Thanksgiving finale while also getting Over.

RJ White, fantasy and gambling editor for CBS Sports, is consistently crushing as SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert. In addition to going 445-378-24 in his ATS picks from 2017-21, he was especially sharp when it came to the Vikings. In hi slast 84 picks involving Minnesota, White went 52-28-4 (+$2,053), so you’ll definitely want to know where he leans Thursday night. To view this selection, head over to SportsLine.

“The Vikings were embarrassed Sunday at home because the Cowboys blew them away. They’ll bounce back and play better here. New England’s offense is struggling, but the defense is playing well. Even so, I think the Vikings will respond on offense The Patriots offense is bad.” — Pete Prisco, CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst on why he’s taking the Vikings to beat New England by 10 in the Thanksgiving finale.

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