NFL Odds Week 9: Home team will cover first best bets

NFL Odds Week 9: Home team will cover first best bets

With Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The stat sheet is almost dry on Sunday night’s Packers-Bills game and I’m already looking ahead to Week 9. What can I say? That’s how I roll.

Let’s take a look at why I like covering two home teams in my first best NFL Week 9 bets (provided via FOX Bet).

Vikings in the Commanders (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

It’s not always pretty for the Commanders when Taylor Heinicke is at quarterback, but he has a quality about him that keeps this team in ballgames. Heinicke has started two games this season, winning both while being covered by the spread. He’s just able to spark this offense in ways that Carson Wentz couldn’t. He never seems to be bothered by bad plays or bad moments and always looks down to make the big throw. Not surprisingly, receiver Terry McLaurin has featured heavily in both of those wins. If they keep getting him the ball, good things will happen.

The Vikings are 6-1 with a soft schedule. They deserve respect for getting to this point, but what exactly are they good at? When it comes to offensive and defensive efficiency, they are mediocre. Kirk Cousins ​​is averaging 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt, easily the worst of his career. They rely on the run, but the Commanders defense is always ready to slow down an opponent’s rushing attack.

If the Vikings struggle to run the ball, based on what we know about Cousins’ passing game, will they be able to push it down the field? Probably not.

Give me the Commanders to cover.

CHOOSE: Commanders (+3 on FOX Bet) to lose by less than 3 points (or win outright)

Rams in the Buccaneers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

This bet is less about going all-in on the Bucs and more about fading the Rams.

The Rams have the worst offense in the NFL. Yes. You read that right. According Ben Baldwin’s expected points were added metricallythe rams have the lowest efficiency rating in the nfl.

The Rams offensive line stinks. They can’t run the ball and Matthew Stafford is only comfortable throwing to the Cooper Cup. Well, unfortunately, it appears that Kupp was injured in the final minutes of their home loss to the 49ers and his status for Sunday is unknown. LA is averaging just 15.4 points per game over its last five games and now the team is off to travel to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay’s defense is hit or miss. lately, she was mostly a miss. But the Bucs’ defensive line can destroy the Rams’ offense, and I’m not sure how the Rams game plans for that issue.

Unlike some older quarterbacks in the NFL who seem to have withered hands, that’s not the case for Tom Brady. Brady’s arm is fine. What is not good is the pace of the offense and the playcalling. Both are miserable. Seems like an easy fix. Stop running the ball on obvious runs, start throwing more action and don’t run the A gap short.

Still, I always trust Brady to figure it out, and against this Rams team, I expect that to happen.

CHOOSE: Buccaneers (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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